By: Nicola Mawson – IOL Business

As food inflation surged to a 15-month high of 5.1% in June, far outpacing overall consumer inflation, this is set to have a devastating effect on South Africans, with research showing that a 1% increase in food prices can reduce household welfare by a staggering 21.3%.

Overall food inflation, by contrast, is 3% as of June, having crept up from April and May’s 2.8%, according to Statistics South Africa.

Meat prices, especially beef, are the primary driver of this surge. Beef costs have risen sharply for three consecutive months, with stewing beef prices increasing by 21.2% year-on-year. This is the fastest rate since South Africa began tracking the consumer price index in 2017.

Other fresh produce, including beetroot, lettuce, and carrots, have also seen steep price increases, further squeezing household budgets, Statistics South Africa data shows.

While some staples such as white rice and cold cereals saw a slight easing in prices, maize meal continued to register high annual inflation. This keeps pressure on the cost of living for many families.

Dairy prices showed mixed trends: fresh milk and eggs were cheaper compared to last year, but rising cheese prices pushed the category into a monthly increase, the agency’s data shows.

The impact of these rising prices is especially severe for poorer households. Research published in the South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences highlights that higher food prices force many families to cut back on essential food purchases or alter their diets, increasing the risk of food insecurity.

“Whether consumers are poor or wealthy, the amount and quality of a consumer’s food basket depend on its affordability, related to consumer income,” the study notes.

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