By: Nicola Mawson - IOL

South Africans are feeling the pinch as the cost of everyday food items continues to climb, though some relief is expected later this year.

Research by IOL shows that a basic basket of bread, milk, and eggs has risen by as much as 280% since August 2009, depending on the type of product.

For example, a 700g loaf of white bread that cost around R5 in 2009 now sells for roughly R19, while a 2-litre carton of full cream milk has risen from about R10 to R38.

A box of a dozen large eggs has jumped from R15 to around R57 over the same period.

And, with July inflation numbers showing that this figure (3.5% year-on-year from 3% in June) is the highest rate since September 2024, more pain is expected.

Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, said food prices rose 5.7% year-on-year in July, up from June’s 5.1%.

“Food prices are impacted by global agricultural prices, which are priced in US dollars, and so are affected by the exchange rate, with the rand not having seen any notable gains last month or this month to date,” she said.

Old Mutual chief economist Johann Els noted that headline inflation was 3.5% in June, slightly above his forecast of 3.4%.

Els noted that food remains a key pressure point, particularly meat.

“Within meat, we've seen continued impact, especially on the red meat side, because of foot and mouth disease. Beef mince is up 9% in the month, now running at 25% year-on-year, and beef steak up 8.4% in the month, running at 29.5% year-on-year,” he said.

Els expects the food component will ease off later this year and will not continue to rise at the same pace indefinitely.

The dairy and eggs category remained in deflationary territory, Statistics South Africa said in its print, out this morning.

Several products are cheaper than a year ago, including maize-based food drinks, eggs, and certain milk varieties.

Prices for cheese, however, continue to rise. Gouda is 7,2% and cheddar 5,5% more expensive than a year ago.

“While the [inflation] number was a touch higher than expected, a moderate updrift is still expected for the rest of this year, with inflation around 3.5% in the coming months, rising towards 3.9% by the end of the year,” Els said.

With further moderate increases expected in the short term, South Africans can continue to feel the squeeze on their grocery bills, though some relief may be on the horizon later in 2025.

Bishop expects CPI inflation to rise towards 4% by the end of 2025 before easing back to around 3.5% by mid-2026.

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