Petrol price could tumble to three-year low in November

21 October 2025 | Economic factors

By: Jason Woosey - IOL

Following moderate fuel price movements in October, South African motorists can expect more substantial petrol and diesel price decreases from the beginning of November.

The current outlook points to petrol price decreases of 58 cents for 95 Unleaded and 62 cents for 93 Unleaded, based on the latest unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF).

Diesel is looking set for a decrease in the region of 34 cents for 500ppm and 33 cents in the case of 50ppm, and the latest daily data implies this over-recovery could grow further by month-end.

If the above predictions transpire, 95 Unleaded could reach its lowest level since February 2022, with a 57-cent decrease knocking the price of 95 Unleaded petrol down to R20.22 at the coast and R21.06 in Gauteng. 93 Unleaded is expected to cost around R20.86 following the anticipated 61-cent decrease.

On the diesel front, a 33-cent decrease will see the wholesale price receding to R18,30, making it 65 cents less expensive than it was in January.

The predicted decreases come primarily as a result of lower international product prices, with the stronger rand adding around 11 cents to the over-recovery in the case of petrol.

This month saw Brent Crude oil fall to its lowest level in almost six months, with prices dropping to around the $61 mark this week.

According to Reuters, prices have been softer this month due to concerns about excess supply as well as risks to demand, exacerbated by trade-related tensions between the US and China, which are the world’s top oil consumers.

Despite the current oversupply situation, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are forging ahead with plans to increase production, leading analysts to predict a surplus of crude this year and next.

Analysts from China’s Haitong Securities said the pressure from oversupply in the crude oil market is gradually materialising.

"This will dampen market expectations and curb investors' willingness to chase gains, limiting the potential for oil prices to rebound."

All of that means good news for South Africans at the pumps for November, and possibly even December. It remains to be seen, however, whether the good times will persist into 2026.