Fresh figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicate that South Africans could soon face the largest single-month fuel price increase on record, with petrol set to far exceed any previous hike.

The current record dates back to July 2022, when petrol rose by R2.57 per litre global disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the latest CEF data shows a much steeper climb on the horizon, with petrol under-recoveries now ranging between R4.68 and R5.20 per litre.

Diesel prices are on track for an even sharper increase.

Under-recoveries for diesel are currently estimated at between R8.52 and R8.64 per litre, pointing to an unprecedented spike for the fuel. This would not only mark the largest increase ever recorded for diesel but also push pump prices beyond previous highs.

Diesel last peaked at R25.53 per litre in July 2022. Based on current projections, an increase of more than R8.50 would lift prices above R27 per litre.

Petrol users may see slightly less severe outcomes in comparison, though the increases remain significant. The highest recorded price for Petrol 95 stands at R26.74 per litre, also reached in July 2022. Current projections suggest April prices could approach R25.50 per litre.

These estimates do not yet factor in a scheduled fuel levy increase of 21 cents per litre, which is set to take effect on 1 April and will further drive up costs.

According to the National Treasury, there is limited capacity to ease the financial burden on consumers. Director-general Duncan Pieterse noted that mitigating the impact would require tens of millions of rand—funds the government is not in a position to allocate.

As a result, any relief is expected to be minimal, if provided at all.

Based on data from the third week of the pricing cycle, the expected increases are as follows:

• Petrol 93: up by R4.68 per litre
• Petrol 95: up by R5.20 per litre
• Diesel (0.05% sulphur, wholesale): up by R8.52 per litre
• Diesel (0.005% sulphur, wholesale): up by R8.64 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: up by R10.58 per litre

Fuel price pressures have intensified throughout March, largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global commodity markets.

A key factor behind the surge is the sharp rise in oil prices. Crude has climbed significantly following military action involving the United States and Israel targeting Iran, along with retaliatory responses that have heightened instability in the region.

Particular concern centres on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass each day—equivalent to about one-fifth of global petroleum consumption. Ongoing conflict has disrupted traffic through this corridor and affected nearby ports, further constraining supply.

Oil prices, which were below $60 per barrel at the start of the year, have now surged past $100, currently trading near $107.

At the same time, the rand has come under pressure. After strengthening to below R16 against the US dollar earlier in the year, the currency has weakened toward R17/$, briefly crossing that level before settling around R16.80/$ on Friday.

The softer currency has compounded the impact of rising oil prices, adding to the upward pressure on local fuel costs.

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