After April delivered record-breaking increases in petrol and diesel prices—partly cushioned by a temporary R3 per litre tax relief—South Africans are anxiously awaiting clarity on what lies ahead for May.

Earlier this month, escalating tensions in the Middle East drove global oil prices sharply higher, sparking concern that motorists could face another steep hike. However, sentiment has shifted somewhat since a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran was announced on 8 April. Since then, oil prices have eased, with Brent crude averaging about $95 per barrel.

Even so, predicting May’s fuel prices remains challenging.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still fragile, with no lasting resolution in sight. While the recent dip in oil prices has helped limit potential increases, the outlook continues to change as conditions evolve.

According to the latest daily data from the Central Energy Fund, petrol prices are currently showing increases of roughly R2.02 per litre for 93 Unleaded and R2.35 for 95 Unleaded. Diesel, meanwhile, is indicating a much sharper rise of about R7.07 per litre. These figures are based on month-to-date averages and are subject to ongoing revision.

More recent daily movements have been more encouraging, particularly for diesel, where an over-recovery is beginning to emerge. If current oil price trends hold, the expected diesel increase could ease to around R4 per litre by the end of the month, while petrol may climb by closer to R1.40.

These estimates also hinge on whether government decides to extend the temporary R3 per litre reduction in the General Fuel Levy. The relief measure is set for review at the end of April, but no official decision on an extension has yet been confirmed.

At present, motorists are paying R22.53 per litre for 95 Unleaded petrol at the coast and R23.36 inland, while 93 Unleaded inland sits at R23.25. Wholesale diesel prices have climbed to R25.35 at the coast and R26.11 in Gauteng, with retail prices already hovering between R28 and R29 per litre. Looking ahead, pump prices reaching the R30 to R35 range in May appear increasingly likely.

Developments in the Middle East

On Tuesday morning, oil prices edged slightly lower while Asian markets gained, as investors remained hopeful that tensions between the United States and Iran could ease. A key focus is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route responsible for about 20% of the world’s oil supply, which has faced repeated disruptions.

Despite some optimism, uncertainty persists. Questions remain over whether Iran will engage in renewed negotiations, with both Washington and Tehran accusing each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. US President Donald Trump has indicated that restrictions on Iran will stay in place until a deal is reached, while Iranian officials have pushed back against talks under pressure. This ongoing standoff raises concerns that conflict could flare up again once the ceasefire lapses.

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