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Petrol and diesel prices surge beyond initial forecasts

| Economic factors

South African motorists are set to face steeper fuel costs from Wednesday, 6 May, with increases in both petrol and diesel exceeding earlier projections.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirmed that petrol prices—across both grades—will climb by R3.27 per litre. Diesel will see an even larger jump, rising by R6.19 per litre.

Earlier estimates from the Central Energy Fund had pointed to smaller hikes, with 95 Unleaded expected to increase by around R2.04 and 50ppm diesel by R4.96. However, an additional charge in the form of the Slate Levy has pushed prices higher. This levy, which is used to offset prior under-recoveries experienced by fuel suppliers, added R122.70 to the price structure. The department noted that the slate account showed a negative balance of R14.17 billion at the end of March 2026.

Following the adjustments, motorists will pay approximately R25.80 per litre for 95 Unleaded petrol at the coast and R26.33 inland. The inland price for 93 Unleaded is expected to be around R26.52. Meanwhile, the wholesale cost of 50ppm diesel will rise to roughly R31.54 at the coast and R32.30 in Gauteng, before retail margins—typically between R2.50 and R3—are added.

These increases mark a new high for diesel prices. Petrol, however, remains below its record level reached in July 2022, when coastal prices peaked at R26.09 per litre in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices eased significantly within a few months as global oil markets stabilised.

Further pressure expected in coming months

The May increases are largely attributed to higher international fuel prices, with the rand contributing only marginally—adding roughly three to five cents to the final price.

Looking ahead, the outlook suggests even greater pressure could be on the horizon. Continued instability in the Middle East, particularly the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations, has driven Brent crude oil prices higher, recently trading between $113 and $126 per barrel—well above the sub-$101 average used for May’s pricing calculations.

Consumers are also likely to feel the impact of changes to fuel tax relief measures. The temporary reduction currently in place will begin to taper off in June, dropping to R1.50 per litre for petrol and R1.96 for diesel, before being fully withdrawn in July. The current relief—set at R3 per litre for petrol and R3.93 for diesel—remains in effect until early June.

Authorities confirmed that the petrol tax relief would remain unchanged for May, while diesel users benefit from an additional 93 cents reduction for the month. From July, however, the full General Fuel Levy will be reinstated, amounting to R4.10 per litre for petrol and R3.93 for diesel, adding further strain to fuel costs.

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