How staples are driving retail growth

South African shoppers are buying fewer FMCG products than before, but pantry staples continue to hold their ground. In a time of economic pressure, boxed, canned, frozen and shelf-stable foods remain the backbone of the grocery basket. For some households, stocking up on these essentials has become easier, especially for those with the means to buy in bulk. For others, affordability still dictates choice. Many consumers continue to rely on the cheaper and familiar products that stretch meals further and keep households fed. Healthy-for-you options are expanding rapidly, but for many shoppers they remain a luxury. For most South Africans, affordability remains the first consideration.

For retailers, this means ensuring consistent availability of core pantry ingredients. These products enable quick and convenient meal solutions while forming the base of everyday shopping baskets. When retailers understand the role these staples play in daily life, they can improve assortment planning, reduce out-of-stocks and support repeat store visits. According to Vanessa Hall, Country Manager, Worldpanel Division in Kantar, economic pressures continue to shape consumer spending.

Research indicates that while FMCG volumes fell by almost 10%, the rate of decline slowed in the second half of 2024 as economic conditions showed signs of improvement. South Africans purchased fewer FMCG products in 2024 than the previous year, according to the latest State of the Nation report. While take-home spend reached R387 billion across 115 tracked categories in 2024, the market’s value declined by 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting reduced FMCG consumption. The average household bought nearly 100 fewer packs in 2024, with overall volume down 9.8%. Encouragingly, the rate of decline eased during the year – from 10.8% in Q1 to 7.8% in the final quarter – suggesting early signs of stabilisation.

From survival to strategy: How categories shift across income segments

For some households, buying pantry staples is simply about survival. For others, it has become a value strategy. Across South Africa’s diverse income groups, grocery shopping behaviour varies significantly. Economic pressure affects everyone, but it shapes category performance differently depending on geography and household income. In lower-income and rural markets, canned and boxed foods often dominate the basket.

These products offer affordability, long shelf life and convenience, particularly where refrigeration infrastructure may be limited. Smaller pack sizes and entry-level pricing remain critical in these markets, with private labels playing an important role in delivering perceived value. Research from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PMBEJD) highlights the pressure households face when it comes to food affordability. Their latest Household Affordability Index paints a concerning picture of rising food costs.

The cost of the essential household food basket increased marginally from February to March 2025 by R16.14, bringing the total basket cost to R5 329.36. This represents a rise of 0.3%. Over the past year, the basket has increased by R51.43, or 1.0%, compared with March 2024. Civil society organisations immediately raised concerns, warning that rising living costs are pushing many communities deeper into poverty and food insecurity.

Among the 44 items tracked by the PMBEJD, 22 recorded price increases in March. Core staples such as rice, maize meal, white sugar, cake flour, beans, samp and cooking oil were among those affected. Mervyn Abrahams, PMBEJD’s programme coordinator, said The challenge facing many households is clear. Since 2021, the cost of a basic food basket has increased by more than 26%. This has left many South Africans with less disposable income and has influenced where and how they shop. Retailers and suppliers are responding by adjusting promotions, refining pack sizes and reconsidering pricing structures across different retail channels.

What retailers can do to help

Financial pressure is reshaping grocery spending in South Africa. Retailers and suppliers can no longer rely solely on pricing tactics to address the challenges consumers face. The shift in shopping behaviour appears structural rather than temporary.

Shoppers are increasingly dividing their spending across different retail formats and prioritising visible value. To respond effectively, retailers need a coordinated approach that considers pricing, assortment, promotions and channel strategy. Retailers and suppliers are also adapting to what is known as format evolution – the rebalancing of retail channels in response to economic pressure, digital adoption and shifting shopper priorities.

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