Africa continues to offer one of the world’s strongest long-term consumer growth opportunities. By 2040, the continent’s population is expected to reach 1.7 billion people, consumer expenditure is forecast to approach US$2.5 trillion, and GDP is projected to nearly double to US$3.8 trillion.

Rising incomes, urbanisation and digital connectivity will continue to expand the continent’s consumer opportunity.

These insights formed the foundation of Euromonitor International’s Where Growth Shifts Next in Africa presentation at the Eyes on Africa 2026 conference. The event explored where the next opportunities are emerging and, importantly, how changing market dynamics, consumer behaviour and competitive models are reshaping the strategies businesses need to capture them.

Africa’s growth opportunity is becoming more concentrated

Over the past few years, businesses have faced overlapping disruptions, from the pandemic and inflation to supply chain pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. While different in nature, these shocks have affected both businesses and consumers, reinforcing the need for more resilient growth strategies.

Despite this challenging environment, Africa’s long-term growth story remains positive. However, an important shift is taking place, as growth is becoming increasingly uneven across markets, industries and consumer groups.

Source: Euromonitor International Passport, 2026ed

This divergence is already visible across regions. East Africa is expected to be the fastest-growing region, with GDP expanding at a 6.2% CAGR between 2025 and 2040, supported by infrastructure investment, industrialisation, urbanisation and favourable demographics. West Africa remains a major value pool, accounting for around 29% of Sub-Saharan African GDP in 2025, while Southern Africa is expected to grow more moderately at around 2.7% annually.

Growth is also diverging across industries, with some categories expanding considerably faster than established, mature sectors.

For businesses, the implication is clear, broad assumptions about Africa are becoming less effective, requiring a more discerning approach to investment. Today’s biggest market may not necessarily create tomorrow’s biggest opportunity. Success will depend less on being everywhere and more on understanding where growth is shifting, which consumers are driving demand, and where emerging opportunities lie. Companies will need to balance today’s scale with tomorrow’s momentum, while adapting their strategies to local market realities.

Tomorrow’s consumer is changing the rules of demand

Africa’s demographic advantage remains significant, but the consumer emerging from this growth story is changing. Consumers continue to face affordability pressures, yet their expectations are expanding. They seek convenience, quality, relevance and experiences alongside value. This demand depends on understanding changing consumer priorities, shifting spending patterns and the consumers driving them. Generational change will accelerate this shift. Generation Z represents around 25% of South Africa’s population, while Millennials remain important spenders and Generation X and older consumers continue to command purchasing power. Businesses therefore need to understand multiple generations because they play different but equally important roles in shaping demand. Each generation defines value differently. Consumers increasingly expect more than products. They want brands that understand their needs, values and lifestyles. This is why personalisation is becoming important. The opportunity is not simply to reach more consumers, but to understand what matters to them across generations, incomes and life stages.

The next competitive advantage is removing friction

Across the region, businesses are increasingly shifting from competing through products alone towards building connected customer ecosystems. Consumers move between discovery, shopping, payments, fulfilment and loyalty as one journey, and businesses are linking these moments to make everyday life easier.

South Africa illustrates this shift, with ecommerce sales reaching approximately US$6.3 billion in 2025, up from US$1.2 billion in 2019, while grocery ecommerce expanded nearly 17 fold. Checkers Sixty60 shows how commerce, delivery and loyalty can work together in one ecosystem.

But ecosystems extend beyond digital retail. Physical stores are evolving into destinations, combining groceries with ready meals, coffee, beauty services and technology, while fuel stations increasingly combine fuel, restaurants and convenience retail.

As a result, businesses need to give consumers more reasons to engage while removing friction. Across Africa, winning companies are increasingly owning more valuable moments across the customer journey, strengthening convenience, relevance, loyalty and customer value over time.

Africa will reward precision and local relevance

Africa’s long term consumer opportunity remains compelling, but capturing it will require greater precision and stronger local execution.

Businesses will need to make more deliberate choices about where they invest, follow emerging demand rather than scale alone, understand the consumers shaping future spending, and build connected experiences that make their lives easier.

There is no single African consumer, and there is no single strategy for winning across Africa. What works in one market may not work in another. Businesses that succeed will be those that combine global capabilities with a deep understanding of local consumers, market conditions and changing demand.

Ultimately, Africa’s next phase of growth will reward businesses that know where to compete, who to serve and how to create meaningful value.

Growth in Africa is real, but being present is no longer enough. Success will increasingly depend on being present in the right opportunities, with the right proposition, for the right consumer.

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