Skip to main content

Retail sales growth expected to have remained muted

| Economic factors

Retail sales growth in September is expected to have remained muted amid depressed consumer confidence and high unemployment‚ according to Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan.

"Retail sales growth for September is forecast to have lifted to 1.0% year on year (y/y) from 0.2% y/y in August‚ remaining below the average of 2.3% y/y in the year so far.

"The ability and willingness of consumers to spend has been affected by weak growth in real disposable incomes‚ depressed consumer confidence‚ muted rates of credit extension to households and higher taxes and interest rates‚" says Kaplan.

The retail sales data for September is due for release on Wednesday. Also due for release this week is the unemployment report for the third quarter.

"The Quarterly Labour Force Survey for Q3.16 is likely to reflect that the unemployment rate remained elevated at 26.4% compared to 26.6% in the previous quarter‚" says Kaplan.

She adds: "Job creation in the private sector is expected to be weak in line with essentially stagnant economic activity and depressed business confidence. In Q3.16‚ there is scope for government sector employment to have temporarily risen on account of the municipal elections in August."

TMG Digital

Pin It

Related Articles

‘Desperation is the new normal’ for South Afric...

By: Opinion – IOL Business Report South Africans have been collectively waiting with bated breath for some small financial reprieve from the relentless price hikes of the past few years that have driven them to the brink of despair, chief among t...

SA retail sales up 2.3% in March

Stats SA reports that retail trade sales increased by 2.3% year-on-year in February 2024. The largest contributor to this increase was general dealers (6.4% and contributing 2.8 percentage points).

Massive tax increases to fund NHI – destroying ...

By: Shaun Jacobs – Daily Investor Funding the government’s National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme would require a 31% increase in personal income tax, or a 6.5% increase in VAT, or a ten times increase in payroll tax, threatening South Afric...

SA consumers’ disposable income eroded by high ...

By: Given Majola - IOL Business South African consumers’ disposable income was being eroded by persistently high interest rates and inflation (especially food inflation) while a lack of any meaningful economic growth was constraining their salaries.

Nearly half of South Africans struggle to affor...

By: Xolile Mtembu - IOL South Africans spend over one-third of their income on food, and growing costs have a significant impact on their finances.